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双语:解封后,各国迎来恢复经济的新一轮PK?


Finally as daily infection rates around the world fall,  people can start to think about getting their lives back on track from the lockdown status, but the big question remains the same, how long will it take the economy to recover from this?

终于,新冠肺炎病毒的每日新增确诊率在全球范围内都有不同程度的下降,人们终于可以得以喘息,思考接下来要如何解除封锁,让生活重回正轨。一直以来的重要问题都是,经济需要多久才能满血复活?

Whilst the Central Banks across the world have pumped the all-important liquidity to bolster markets either via quantitative easing or direct interest rate cuts. This stimulus stemmed the freefall in the short term, before progressive daily infection rates stepped in and further brought relief to the markets as speculators priced in a lifting of some of the extreme lockdown restrictions.

We could however have the all too typical “buy the rumor sell the fact” scenario, with the markets unwilling to push on and make new highs despite physical evidence of progress. Whilst many people can exercise more, see slightly more family and, in some countries return to work, the reality lies that the return to normal working and social conditions remains a long way off, and that the Central Bank and Governmental fiscal resolve will again be tested.

各国央行通过量化宽松或直接降息的方式为市场注入了流动性,在至关重要的时刻为市场“撑腰”。这样的强刺激在短期内抑制了市场的跳水式下跌。之后,每日感染率的逐步下降进一步给市场带来了宽慰,人们对不久后将进一步解封的期望,也已反映在了市场价格中。

然而,“买在谣言起,卖在事实出”这一金句再一次被印证。尽管我们不断看到抗疫的实质进展,但是市场却没有再创新高的迹象。尽管许多人如今可以增加外出锻炼的次数,访问亲友,甚至在部分国家,人们可以回归工作岗位,但他们距离能够恢复正常工作和社交的日子还很遥远。此外,各国中央银行和政府财政方面的解决方案仍有待测试。

Last week was certainly not short of Central Bankers using the line “we will do whatever it takes”  even as typical stimulus measures get to the point of exhaustion, in the US Jerome Powell keenly ruled out the use of negative interest rates, claiming they would not be the most effective way of dealing with the issues. In the UK the Bank of England’s Haldane got sent the already weakened Pound after a tough week with the reengaged Brexit talks, lower at the Asian open after talking about the consideration of negative interest rates. Whilst he did not explicitly say lower rates are coming, the perception remains that the door is open.

尽管传统的刺激手段所能带来的效果已经逐渐减弱,上周,我们还是频频从各中央银行高层口中听到这样的话——“我们定会竭尽全力”。美联储主席鲍威尔表态,不会考虑负利率,并认为负利率并不是最有效的解决方法。英国央行首席经济学家霍尔丹一番关于负利率的言论,让上周已经因“脱欧”谈判不顺而承压下跌的英镑,在本周亚洲开盘时再度下跌。尽管他没有明确表态英国将迎来“负利率时代”,但人们揣测这样的可能性仍然存在。

With stocks inflated due to the stimulus and continually terrible macro data, it has brought high level investors such as Mark Cuban to the opinion that the V shaped recovery will be more prolonged with a real possibility of down before a more protracted recovery in the stock market. The last week has again highlighted the fragility of the US/China trade agreement with the Trump administration again seeming intent on a deflection campaign to mask their delayed reaction to the virus and lockdown, whilst trying to get the public on their side ahead of the election.

随着股市在刺激措施和不佳的宏观数据中不断攀升,包括马克·库班在内的多位投资巨鳄认为,股市的“V型反弹”可能会来得较晚一些,在恢复之前有极大可能会延续一段下行走势。

As risk has changed footing with safe haven currencies becoming more favored, the US Dollar had a strong week last week, in particular against the UK’s Pound and the Euro. In Europe there were concerns after Germany saw a slight increase in cases after the lifting of lockdown, with the German court ruling over the ECB’s stimulus still fueling fears of an EU rift.  

随着市场上风险的改变,避险货币再次被垂青。美元上周表现强势,尤其是相对于英镑和欧元。欧洲方面,德国解除封锁后出现的病例短暂激增引发担忧,此外,德国法院对欧洲央行刺激手段的裁决更加剧了市场对欧盟裂痕难以弥合的忧虑。

Naturally, as we have become accustomed the week will be watching the daily Covid-19 cases updates, with particular consideration given to any surge in cases where we have seen lockdown relaxations. On Tuesday night we hear from the Reserve Bank of Australia on monetary policy then the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

接下来的一周,我们将一如既往地关注新冠的数据更新,尤其是解除封锁国家是否出现病例激增的情况。周二晚上,我们将得到澳大利亚联储货币政策的消息。周三,美联储将发布会议纪要。

 


本周展望

 周一 Monday

· GDP增长–日本

GDP Growth – Japan

· 住房市场指数-美国

Housing Market Index - US

 

周二 Tuesday

· 工业产量–日本

Industrial Production – Japan

· 失业率–英国

Unemployment Rate – UK

· ZEW经济情绪–德国

ZEW Economic Sentiment – Ger

· 新屋开工数–美国

Housing Starts – US

· 零售销量-美国

Retail Sales – US

 

周三 wednesday

· 机械订单–日本

Machinery Orders – Japan

· 零售价格指数-英国

RPI – UK

· 通货膨胀率–欧元区

Inflation Rate – Eurozone

· 石油数据–美国

Oil Data – US

· 美联储公开市场委员会会议-美国

FOMC Meeting – US

 

周四 Thursday

· 马基制造业PMI-英国,美国

Markit Manufacturing PMI – UK, US

· 失业救济申请数-美国

Jobless Claims – US

 

周五 Friday

· 马基制造业PMI-法国、德国、欧元区

Markit Manufacturing PMI – Fr, Ger, Eurozone


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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