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双语:赢家是谁?欧洲经济数据和地缘风险提振避险资产


尽管我们似乎已经习惯了,每周都有关于英国“脱欧”的大事发生,但每当有让政治战略家、市场参与者和我们自己都感觉更加困惑的重大事件发生时,“脱欧”的最终结果都会变得更加让人难以预测。上周的主要焦点事件,是英国最高法院对于首相鲍里斯·约翰逊让议会休会这一做法合法性的判决。约翰逊为了不让他人阻拦自己的“脱欧”议程而让议会休会,在上个星期二,最高法院判决他的做法是非法的。Whilst we seem to get used to saying “it has been a big week for Brexit” each week, we keep seeing significant events that leave political strategists, market participants and ourselves even more confused, with the eventual outcome becoming still harder to derive. This week the major event was the English Supreme Court ruling on whether Prime Minister Boris Johnsons actions of proroguing Parliament was an effort to block the disruption of his Brexit agenda.  On Tuesday it was deemed that the way in which it was done was unlawful.


尽管10月31日“无协议脱欧”的可能性变得更低了,对于“脱欧”接下来将如何发展的困惑和不确定性仍然被货币市场认为是负面因素,这导致英镑兑美元汇率下跌,尽管欧元走弱,英镑兑欧元仍然下跌。Although this now makes a “no deal” Brexit even less likely on 31st October, the confusion and uncertainty around the path forward is being taken as a negative by currency markets, which has seen the Pound selloff versus the US Dollar and even against a weakened Euro.

 

然而,英镑的疲软实际上刺激了英国股市某些行业版块的上涨,并且,富时100指数(更像是一个英国和全球指数)对英镑的疲软也做出了积极反应。However, this Sterling weakness has actually boosted the UK stock market in some sectors, with the FTSE 100 average (more of a UK + global index) reacting positively to the weakness in the Pound.
上周,随着德国、法国和欧元区采购经理人指数(PMI)数据先后发布,大大低于预期的数据让欧元不太好过。负面情绪延续到上周末,欧元兑美元显著下跌至2017年以来的最低水平,尽管欧元疲软的很大一部分是因为避险情绪引发的“安全投资转移”和美元的强势。Last week started with a bump for the Euro as again the German, French and Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data came in very negative versus expectations. This negative tone for the Euro extended into the end of the week, with EUR/USD pushing notably lower to its lowest level since 2017, although a significant part of the weakness is attributable to the flight to quality and strength of the US Dollar.

 

在过去一周中,美国更重要的政治事件是,特朗普与乌克兰总统之间的电话对话被披露。众议院议长南希·佩洛西向总统特朗普发起了弹劾调查,该调查将在未来几周甚至几个月内成为美国政治圈的焦点。A more significant US political development over the past week has been the Trump whistle-blower story, with respect to the publishing of the phone conversation between Trump and the Ukrainian President. This has caused the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to launch an impeachment enquiry into President Trump, which will now take centre stage in the US political arena for the coming weeks and maybe months. 

 

沙特阿拉伯石油设施遭受袭击让中东的紧张局势备受关注,但由于目前情势没有明显升级,已不再是主要的关注点。然而,我们依然需要在10月关注中东局势。在过去一周中,油价逐渐稳定下来。Middle East tensions, which had been in the spotlight since the attacks on the Saudi Arabian oil plants, have stepped out of the spotlight, with no notable escalation. However, this is an area that still needs to be monitored going into October. The oil price has assumed more of a consolidation theme over the past week.

 

过去一周来,上述的地缘政治不确定性增加以及欧洲数据的恶化对金融市场造成了影响,高风险资产被抛售,避险资产价格上涨。欧洲、美国和亚洲的股指似乎都经受不起进一步的下跌(英国富时100指数除外)。债券市场已持续反弹至9月下旬,随着对优质债券的买入,收益率进一步走低。尽管在货币领域,美元仍居于首位,这既是因为美元作为避险货币的角色,还是因为美联储发言人强调了上一次联邦公开市场委员会会议(FOMC)上呈现的观点,即美联储寻求避免今年进一步降息。The overall impact on financial markets from the aforementioned increase in geopolitical uncertainty over the past week and the deterioration in European data has been to see riskier assets sell off, whilst safe haven assets have rallied. European, US and Asian stock averages look vulnerable to further losses on the charts (with the exception the UK FTSE 100, looking positive, as noted above). Bond markets have rebounded into late September with a push back to lower yields with a flight to quality bid. Whilst in the currency space, the US Dollar stays King, benefiting in both a safe haven role, plus with Fed speakers reinforcing the view from the last FOMC Meeting that the Fed is looking to step away from further rate cuts this year.

 

本周处于月初,将是重要的数据周。备受关注的美国就业报告将于10月4日(星期五)发布。本周其他主要数据是全球制造业和非制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)和美国ISM数据,以及周一的英国国内生产总值(GDP)。An important data week as ever for the start of the month, with the much-watched US Employment report due on Friday 4th October. The other main data highlights for the week are the global Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI and US ISM data through the week, plus UK GDP on Monday. 

The week ahead

本周展望

 

周一 Monday

· 中国国家统计局制造业采购经理指数(之前为49.5)

NBS China Manufacturing PMI (previous, 49.5)

· 英国国内生产总值(GDP)(前值为环比增长0.5%、同比增长 1.8%)

UK GDP (previous, 0.5%/1.8% QoQ/YoY)


周二 Tuesday

· 加拿大制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)(先前为47.2)

Canada Manufacturing PMI (previous, 47.2)

· 意大利Markit 制造业 PMI(之前为48.7)

Italy Markit Manufacturing PMI (previous, 48.7)

· 德国Markit 制造业PMI(之前为43.5)

Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI (previous, 43.5)

· 加拿大GDP(前值为0.2%)

Canada GDP (previous, 0.2%)

· 美国ISM制造业PMI(一致期望50.4,前值 49.1)

US ISM Manufacturing PMI (consensus/previous, 50.4/49.1)


周三 Wednesday

· 英国消费者PMI(前值为45)

UK Consumer PMI (previous, 45)

· 美国ADP国民就业率(一致期望为153K,前值195K)

US ADP National Employment (consensus/previous, 153K/195K)


周四 Thursday

· 美国ISM非制造业PMI(一致期望为55.8,前值56.4)

US ISM Non-Manufactruing PMI (consensus/previous, 55.8/56.4)

· 英国服务业PMI(前值50.6)

UK Service PMI (previous, 50.6) 

· 美国全部汽车销量(前值为460万辆)

US All Car Sales (previous, 4.6mn units) 


周五 Friday

· 澳大利亚零售业销量(前值为-0.1%)

Australia Retail Sales (previous, -0.1%) 

· 美国非农就业数据(一致预期162K,前值130K)

US Non-Farm Payrolls (consensus/previous, 162K/130K)  

· 美国失业率(一致预期3.7%,前值3.7%)

US Unemployment Rate (consensus/previous, 3.7%/3.7%) 


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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