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双语:美联储如约降息!特朗普却并不够满意?


The main event of the last week was the monetary policy meeting from Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve in the US. The markets awaited to see if Powell would keep his focus purely on the economics or bow to the pressure of President Donald Trump.  Trump has remained critical of the Fed Chair claiming his committee should be cutting interest rates far more aggressively claiming Powell did not know what he was doing and even at one point labelling him a “Bonehead”. Powell remains staunch in his view’s that his committee should act based on the economic data and not Presidential pressure. So, as the Fed continued their ‘Mid-cycle adjustment’ last week by lowering interest rates by 25 basis points Powell remained tight-lipped on future projections, dodging direct questions on the next steps in policy and even hinting their own dot plot should be ignored.

上周的主要事件是关于杰罗姆·鲍威尔在美国举行的美联储货币政策会议。整个市场在观察鲍威尔将会继续把注意力集中在经济数据上,还是屈服于特朗普总统的压力。特朗普仍然在批评美联储主席,指责他的委员会应该采取更加积极的降息,并称鲍威尔不知道自己在做什么,甚至称他为“硬骨头”。鲍威尔坚定地认为,他的委员会应根据经济数据做决定而不是在总统的压力下行事。因此,随着美联储上周通过继续降息25个基点来继续其“经济周期的中期调整”,鲍威尔对未来预测依旧保持了守口如瓶的态度,回避了有关对于下一步政策的问题,甚至暗示可以忽略他们预期利率的点阵图。

 

The market took this as a hawkish cut, implying that it seems less likely that we see immediate action in the coming meetings and the stock market and USD enjoyed it. Its clear Powell seems keen to irradiate the typical fashion of central bankers giving forward guidance on rate moves as we have become used to.  But its clear Powell believes the US economy is in a good place if anything his continuous reference to trade was a hint that the biggest threat comes from a situation Trump is the catalyst of.

市场将此视为鹰派降息,这意味着我们不太可能在即将到来的会议中看到立即采取的行动,对此股市和美元将此视为积极信号。很明显,鲍威尔似乎希望激发央行为利率的走势提供前瞻性指导。鲍威尔认为美国经济形势较好,若有什么不同的话,他持续提到贸易可能是在暗示贸易是对经济的最大威胁,而特朗普则是催化这一威胁的人。

 

Over the weekend we hear more ‘positive talks’ updates on the China trade deal from the Trump administration.  In light of trade deal positivity, we have seen stocks open well across Asia as we start the week. Mondays early data saw manufacturing in France and particularly German continue to show weakness which brought EUR/USD below 1.1000 as German Manufacturing hit a 123 month low. 

特朗普政府在周末寻求与中国进行贸易平衡的“积极谈判”。考虑到贸易交易的积极性,我们在本周开始看到亚洲各地的股票开盘表现良好。周一早盘数据显示,法国和德国的制造业依旧处于弱势,德国制造业触及123个月低点,欧元/美元跌破1.1000。


In Brexit, we await the ruling of the Supreme Court in London on whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson broke the law whilst proroguing parliament. This news was expected on Monday morning but looks set to be delayed. Unperturbed by the court actions Johnson has a big week ahead of him meeting Trump in New York as well as German and French leaders Merkel and Macron, Irish Leader Varadkar and European Council President Donald Tusk as he seeks to get agreement on a deal. The key fact that seems apparent is that there is no new plan, early last week we heard from Varadkar and the EU’s Junker who both explained there was no new idea of a solution on the Irish backstop, this is the crux of the deal and its seems without it Johnson is driving the UK towards a no-deal Brexit.

再来关注下英国“脱欧”,我们还在等待伦敦最高法院关于首相鲍里斯·约翰逊让议会休会这一做法是否触犯法律的裁决。该消息预计将会在周一上午发布,但看起来将会被推迟。约翰逊似乎并没有被诉讼扰乱,这周他将在纽约与特朗普、德国领导人默克尔和法国领导人马克龙进行会面,他还将和爱尔兰领导人瓦拉德卡尔以及欧洲理事会主席唐纳德·图斯克会面,以寻求达成有关协议的共识。但显而易见的是,他似乎并没有什么新计划。上周初,瓦拉德卡尔和容克都表示并没有得到爱尔兰边境保障措施新的解决方案,但这是达成协议的难题,不能解决这个问题,约翰逊将推动英国走向无协议退欧进程。

 

Polls over the weekend showed that the Conservative party have extended their lead in the UK as the Labour party and leader Jeremy Corbyn continue to show a lack of leadership quality or even a cohesive vision or policy on how they would handle Brexit. Party leader Jeremy Corbyn stated if elected he would attempt to negotiate a Brexit deal with the EU for three months before calling a referendum for the people.  This confused approach naturally upsets a huge percentage of Labour voters who simply want Labour to stand up and stop Brexit.  Corbyn’s stance leaves voters confused as to whether Labour wants Brexit or not at a time where a remain vote to Johnson‘s leave seems the appropriate route to the campaign. 

周末的民意调查显示,保守党扩大了在英国的领导地位,因为工党领导人杰里米·科尔宾并未能表现出领导才能,并在如何处理英国“脱欧”方面缺乏具有凝聚力的愿景和政策。科尔宾表示,如果当选,他将试图与欧盟进行为时三个月的“脱欧”谈判,然后再举行一次全民公决。这样的做法显然让大部分的工党选民感到失望,因为他们希望看到工党站出来去阻止“脱欧”。科尔宾的立场让选民感到困惑,不知道工党到底是否希望“脱欧”,在这个时刻,工党最好的竞选方式应该是让选民能够投票,继续留在欧盟。

 

With the Brexit deadline pressing the pound seems reasonably well supported pushing towards 1.2580 against the US Dollar before falling back to just below 1.2500 at this week open, but it seems to be finding some stability at the moment as we await the Supreme Court ruling.

随着英国“脱欧”截止日期逼近,本周开盘,英镑兑美元先是升至1.2580,接着回落至略低于1.2500。在等待最高法院裁决的同时,目前市场还算相对稳定。


This week is relatively quiet from an economic data perspective with interest rate announcements from New Zealand and Thailand. Fed Reserve members Williams and Daly both speak on Monday. On Friday we get US inflation data (PCE). 

本周的经济数据较少,新西兰和泰国将宣布新的利率,美联储成员威廉姆斯和戴利都在周一发表了演讲。周五,我们将获得美国通胀数据 (PCE)。

 

The Week Ahead:

本周展望

 

Monday - The day started with French, German and European PMI data all falling below expectation bringing the Euro lower. In the afternoon we will hear from Mario Draghi and get Manufacturing PMI’s from the US. We also hear from two Fed Reserve members Williams and Bullard. 

周一:法国,德国和欧洲的采购经理人指数(PMI)数据均低于预期,使欧元走低。在下午,我们将听到马里奥·德拉吉的讲话,并得到美国制造业采购经理人指数。我们也将会听到美联储成员威廉姆斯和布拉德的演说。

 

Tuesday - Early in the session Bank of Japan’s Kuroda speaks. We get German Ifo Business Climate data early in the session.  Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Lowe speaks at 10.55. In the afternoon we have US consumer confidence where a contraction from 135.1 to 134.1 is forecast. 

周二:日本央行行长黑田东彦将发表演讲。我们将获得德国Ifo商业环境数据。澳大利亚储备银行行长洛威将在10:55发表讲话。下午,美国消费者信心指数将发布,预测将从135.1降至134.1.

 

Wednesday -  Very early in the session we hear from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand who is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 1%. There is little additional significant data until we hear from the Fed’s Evans and George in the US session. 

周三:新西兰储备银行预计将保持利率在1%不变。在美联储成员埃文斯和乔治的讲话前,我们没有其他重要数据。


Thursday - A very quiet morning is followed up by a busy afternoon with US Quarter on Quarter GDP.  We then hear from Mario Draghi of the ECB and Mark Carney of the Bank of England and the Fed’s Bullard and Clarida. 

周四: 下午,我们将得到美国季度GDP增长数据。欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉、英国央行行长马克·卡尼,以及美联储的布拉德和克拉里达将讲话。


Friday - First up from Europe is German import prices, French consumer spending and CPI. UK MPC Member Saunders speaks at 8 am. In the US Session, we get Core Durable Goods, PCE Inflation, Consumer spending and Fed member Quarles all hitting at 1.30 pm. 

周五:首先得到的是德国进口价格、法国消费者支出和CPI。英国货币政策委员会成员桑德斯在上午八点发表演说。美国板块,我们将在下午1:30获得美国核心耐用品订单率、个人消费支出通货膨胀率、消费者支出以及美联储成员夸尔斯的讲话。


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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