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沙特石油设施遭无人机袭击,全球油价飙升(双语)


Following what looks like a premeditated tactical drone strike at one of Saudi Arabia’s key Oil refineries over the weekend Oil prices have soared just below 15% at the market open.  This unprecedented move comes as the incident has such magnitude that it could cause Saudi Arabi to cut oil output by 50%.  As one of the world’s largest distributors of oil, the knock-on effects to world oil prices will be significant as the immediate price action is showing.  The stem in the pipeline could quickly have nations running and using up spare capacity and new delivery channels are sought. 

紧接着周末发生在沙特阿拉伯一个重要石油设施的一次看似事先预谋的无人机袭击,本周开盘油价飙升近15%。这次袭击事件产生了巨大影响,可能导致沙特阿拉伯减少石油产量达50%,因此引发了这样史无前例的价格变动。作为全球最大石油分发商之一,沙特阿拉伯所受到的冲击将给全球油价造成连锁反应,正如现在价格变化反映出来的。生产线的停滞可能很快造成一些国家耗尽备用产量,需要寻求新的渠道来获得石油供给。

 

Naturally, West Texas Oil (WTI) saw the largest gain as the Saudi stock market, so oil-dependent tumbled at the open. There have also been significant moves in Gold, Japanese Yen and Swiss as the market races into safe haven mode in fear of an escalation of global conflicts. As we await a response from the Saudi Kingdom, US President Donald Trump wasted no time in pointing the finger of accusation towards Iran, he declared the US are “Locked and Loaded” to support the Saudis when they have ascertained the cause and decided upon action.

自然而然地,西德克萨斯油(WTI)在开盘时价格涨幅最大,而极度依赖石油的沙特股市则在开盘暴跌。黄金、日元和瑞士法郎的价格均出现巨大变化,出于对全球冲突升级的担忧,市场抢先进入避险模式。我们还没等来沙特王国的反应时,美国总统特朗普已经立即针对伊朗进行谴责。他声明美国已经全副武装准备好,沙特一旦确认了遭袭击的原因,决定采取行动,美国便会全力支持。

 

In the UK Parliament is now prorogued, but MP’s are far from inactive. With Brexit clock ticking UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will meet with the European Union’s Jean-Claude Junker today.  Over the weekend Johnson gave an interview with the Mail on Sunday where he stated he still believe a deal can be reached with the EU. He stated that he believed that progress could be made in this week’s discussion and he believes he can finalise a deal in the deadline talks on 17-19th October.  Comments from Junker from the weekend showed far less optimism as he questioned whether Johnson will be presenting any tangible solution for the contentious Irish border issue.

英国方面,议会已经休会,但议会成员却没有怠惰。随着“脱欧”截止日期逼近,首相鲍里斯·约翰逊将在今天会晤欧盟委员会主席让·克劳德·容克。周末期间,约翰逊接受了《星期日邮报》的采访,在采访中,约翰逊称他仍然相信能与欧盟达成协议。他认为这周的讨论将带来进展,并且自己能在10月17日至19日的协商中敲定一份协议。周末容克的说法却远远没有这么乐观,他质疑在有争议的爱尔兰边界问题上,约翰逊能否提出任何切实的解决方案。

 

More worryingly for UK politics was Johnson's obvious defiance of new legislation formed to force the PM into requesting an extension of Article 50 at the EU summit on the 17-19th if no agreement had been found. This legislation was put in place to block the PM’s ability to force through a hard Brexit, however, he has clearly stated he will not request an extension and defy parliament to negotiate Brexit on his terms. This will of course anger MP’s across all parties including his own, and be met with fresh legal challenges. Johnson’s do or die mentality he wishes to convey to the EU could well be his undoing domestically.

英国政治方面更让人担心的是,约翰逊对于新立法的明显蔑视。这项新法规规定,在未能达成协议的情况下,首相必须在17日到19日的欧盟峰会上要求延期“里斯本条约第50条”。实施这项法规的目的是为了阻止首相强硬推进“无协议脱欧”,然而约翰逊已经明确地指出,他不会重新要求延期,并不允许议会在他任期间商讨“脱欧”事宜。这当然激怒了包括他自己党派在内的各党派议会成员,同时他也将遇到新的法律上的挑战。约翰逊希望向欧盟传达的“孤注一掷”的心态恰恰可能是他在国内失败的原因。

 

The British Pound remains well supported as it continues to show resilience touching the 1.2500 level against the US Dollar last week as the markets remain open to the concept of no “Hard Brexit” despite the PM’s position and actions.

尽管首相的态度和行动如此,市场仍然有着不会出现“无协议脱欧”的信念。英镑表现良好,持续反弹,上周兑美元触及1.25的水平。

 

In the Eurozone, last week we saw the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 0.1% to -0.5% and more significantly reengage a fresh round of Quantitative easing. With the markets expecting these actions, holding only the slightest of doubts that outgoing ECB head Mario Draghi may await the arrival of Christine Lagarde before unleashing the necessary stimulus, the initial market reaction was lower for the Euro as it fell from 1.1070 to 1.0930 against the US Dollar with Draghi’s promise of unlimited resources, however, very quickly there were reports circulating questioning their ability to buy limitless bonds in certain EU countries which brought a complete reversal of the moves seen.

欧元区方面,上周我们看到欧洲央行存款利率降息10个基点,至-0.5%。更重要的是,开启了新一轮量化宽松。由于市场预期到这些行动,且仅对即将离任的欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉是否会等待继任者克里斯蒂娜·拉加德来释放欧元区需要的刺激有极小的怀疑,当德拉吉承诺使用任意资源后,起初市场的反应是欧元兑美元从1.1070降到1.0930。然而很快有报道质疑他们在某些欧盟国家任意购买债券的能力,随即市场反应完全反转。

 

Donald Trump was one of the first to react to the ECB’s actions, as he chastised his own Monetary Policy Committee the Federal Reserve for the pace of their rate-cutting. The President has been incredibly critical of the Fed’s actions in the year to date, but on Wednesday night we have the long-awaited rate decision and statement from Head, Jerome Powell.  The question being will they be swayed by the pressure of the President or continue to focus on the strength of the hard data. Following poor ISM Manufacturing data a few weeks ago it was thought there could be a case for more drastic cuts, but the Employment and Retail sectors remain strong and trade negotiation risk seem to be lessening. The expectation is that we see a cut from 2.25% to 2% with the forward guidance delivered for future rate movement for the US.

特朗普是最早对于欧洲央行行动做出反应的,因为他之前谴责自己的美联储货币政策委员会降息步伐太慢。从年初至今,总统对于美联储行动的批评已经无比高调,但周三晚上我们将会从美联储主席杰罗米·鲍威尔那里得到等待已久的利率决定以及声明。令人关注的问题是,他们将会因总统施压而动摇,还是继续关注实际经济数据的强弱。紧接着几星期前疲软的ISM制造业数据,市场曾预期会有更大幅的降息,但就业和零售业保持强劲,贸易谈判风险也看似在减弱。目前预期是从2.25%降息至2%,并得到美国未来利率变化的前瞻指引。

 

The Week Ahead

本周展望

 

Monday:星期一:

·         Industrial Output – China ·工业产出 - 中国

·         CPI – Italy 消费者价格指数 (CPI)  - 意大利

·         NY Fed Manufacturing – USA 纽约州联储制造业 - 美国

 

Tuesday:星期二:

·         ZEW Economic Sentiment – Germany ZEW经济情绪 - 德国

·         Manufacturing Sales – Canada 制造业销售额 - 加拿大

·         Home Price Index – Australia 房屋价格指数 - 澳大利亚

·         China Price Index – China 中国物价指数 - 中国

·         Industrial Production – USA 工业产量 - 美国

 

Wednesday: 星期三:

·         CPI – UK 消费者价格指数 (CPI) - 英国

·         Build Permits – USA 建筑许可数-美国

·         Trade Balance – Japan 贸易差额-日本

·         Industrial Orders/Sales – Italy 工业订单/销售额-意大利

·         PPI Output – UK 生产者价格指数(PPI)产出-英国

·         HICP – Eurozone 消费者物价调和指数 - 欧元区

·         CPI – Canada 消费者价格指数 (CPI) - 加拿大

·         House Starts - USA 新屋开工数-美国

·         US Interest Rate Decision 美国利率决定

 

Thursday: 星期四:

·         Employment – Australia 就业 - 澳大利亚

·         Retail Sales – UK 零售业销售额 - 英国

·         BOE Bank Rate – UK 英国央行利率 - 英国

·         Initial Jobless Claims – USA 首次申请失业救济人数 - 美国

·         Existing Homes Sales – USA 现屋销售额 - 美国

 

Friday: 星期五:

·          Retail Sales ex-Autos – Canada 零售业销售额(除去汽车) - 加拿大

·          Core CPI – Japan 核心消费者价格指数   - 日本

·          Producers Price – Germany 生产者价格 - 德国

·          Consumer Confidence Index Flash - Eurozone 消费者信心指数Flash - 欧元区

 


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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