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双语:英国“脱欧”和首相竞选仍在继续,市场调整将有变?


In the UK, this week has been pretty much all about the release of the Q1 account. In this way, annual GDP growth went up 1.8% on a year-to-year basis, while 1.4% sequentially. The services sector contributed the most to the output growth, along with an unexpected growth of 1.9% in manufacturing output. On the contrary, net trade contributed negatively, while household expenditure, government consumption and investment also lifted GDP up.

英国方面,这周主要是关于第一季度数据的发布。在这方面,年度GDP增速相对去年同时段上升1.8% ,连续增长为1.4%。服务业对于产出增长贡献最大,制造业产出也超出预期,达到了1.9%的增长。相反,净出口贡献为负。家庭支出、政府消费和投资也提高了GDP。


In the race for the vacant Prime Ministers role both contenders Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt are stepping up their campaigns. The main point the pair have been underlining is their willingness to pull the UK out of the EU on the 31st October with no deal if the EU fails to negotiate to an acceptable level. On the face of it this looks like tough talk to warn the EU that movement on the fine details of the divorce is required, but they are also both seeking to appease the rising following of the Brexit parties across the UK as they head towards the wider party vote.  

在首相之位的角逐中,两位候选者鲍里斯·约翰逊和杰里米·亨特正在为竞选忙碌。两方都重点强调,如果无法与欧盟达成可接受的协议,就在10月31日进行“无协议脱欧。表面上语气看起来非常强硬,以警告欧盟需要“脱欧细节的商定。但更广泛的党内投票越来越逼近,两位候选者也都在寻求安抚全国范围内越来越多的“脱欧派。


From a markets’ perspective, volatility and uncertainty have been key for last week. G20 developments (including tariffs talks), tensions in the Middle East, Chicago PMI contraction amongst the top market movers for this week. As a result, the VIX, which indicates the implied volatility of the S&P 500 edged up 8.5%, while Gold kept rallying for further 160bps. On the same note, Oil prices also went up 3.3% this week, recording a 2-weeks appreciation of almost 13%. Bank of America recently published a very interesting report saying institutional investors, mainly hedge funds and mutual funds, currently own the lowest exposure to equities since the financial crisis. Might this be a symptom of bearishness? Most certainly, “the street” expects a soon(ish) price correction, as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have already been priced in the current US Stock market valuation. The S&P 500 had been up 17% on a year-to-date basis, combined to global debt and derivatives flow at an all-time high feed the scepticism around the central bank's effectiveness to keep driving markets up for longer. So far, we have seen the longest-lasting bullish cycle over the past few decades, but as history teaches the market will eventually bear a price correction and this time might be deeper than last December global sell-off.

从市场角度,动荡和不确定是上周的关键词。G20进展(包括关税谈判)、中东地区紧张形势、芝加哥采购经理人指数的收缩是这周市场变化的首要推动力。因此,VIX(表明标普500动态变化指数)上升了8.5%,而黄金继续回跳160基点。同样的,石油价格这周上涨3.3%,两周内增幅达到近13%。美国银行最近发布了一份非常有趣的报告,指出机构投资者,主要为对冲基金和共同基金,目前在股市持有的仓位为金融危机以来最低。这可能是熊市表现吗?更确定的是,普遍的看法是迟早价格会调整,因为美联储降息已经体现在美股市场的估值中。标普500本年迄今为止上升了17%,加上全球债券市场和衍生品交易达到前所未有的高点,人们更加怀疑央行是否能有效进一步刺激市场。到目前为止,我们看到了过去几十年持续时间最长的牛市周期,但历史告诉我们市场最终会表现出价格调整,而这次比起去年12月的全球性抛售,调整幅度可能更大。

 

Following on from the weekends G-20 meeting the markets have opened positively as news of a truce between the US and China regarding additional tariffs. Whilst details of the agreement remain relatively vague, the tone of both parties’ comments have given the markets the assurance required and the “at least it didn’t go badly” rally has ensued with Asian stocks and the Yuan gaining on the open with safe haven currencies trading negatively. For now, it looks like things are going in the right direction, but comments from Trump centred on the fact the US are winning the trade war will certainly not help. It's quite evident he is using these negotiations to boost his popularity ahead of next years US elections as he seeks to play the knight in shining armour.  But for now, the market will enjoy the positivity of the weekend's progress.  

接着周末的G20会议,传来美国和中国贸易战就额外关税休停的消息,市场开盘表现积极。虽然目前协定细节还比较模糊,双方评论的语气给了市场需要的信心。“至少没有往坏的方向发展”的结果导致亚洲股市和人民币元开盘时立即回升,避险货币则贬值。就目前而言,看似事情在向对的方向发展,但是特朗普聚焦在美国赢得贸易战的评论肯定不会起积极作用。很明显他在利用这些谈判来扮演英雄角色,以在下次明年的美国大选之前提前助长他的人气。但就目前而言市场还会保持周末进展的积极一面。


未来一周前瞻:

Monday – Unemployment rate data from the Eurozone and UK Manufacturing PMI’s from the UK in the morning. In the US session, we receive the US ISM Manufacturing PMI’s

周一,早晨,欧元区失业率和英国制造业采购经理人指数;美国方面,接收到美国美国供应管理学会(ISM)制造业采购经理人指数


Tuesdays – First up is the Australian interest rate decision where it is expected we see a rate cut from 1.25% to 1%. Industrial producer prices in the Eurozone come in the morning before we hear from the RBS’s Lowe in the evening.

周二,最先是澳洲利率决定,市场期望是从1.25%降息到1%。上午还将了解欧元区工业生产者价格指数,晚上是RBS的Lowe发表讲话。


Wednesday – Eurozone first release quarterly sectoral accounts. UK Services PMI comes in the morning. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 2019 as well as ADP employment and Non-manufacturing PMI in the US session.

周三,欧元区首次季度行业报告,英国服务业PMI于上午公布,美国方面将有2019年5月美国商品和服务贸易以及自动数据处理公司(ADP)的就业报告和非制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)。

 

Thursday – A quiet day with Retail sales from Australia is first up followed by Eurozone Retail Sales.

周四,这一天将会很平静,澳洲零售业销售额最先发布,之后是欧元区零售业销售额。

 

Friday – Quarterly balance of payments Q1/2019 in the Eurozone. UK productivity: January to March 2019. In the afternoon it's US employment data where the market looks for an improvement on last month’s 75K employment number forecasting 164K, with also a small boost to average earnings from 0.2% to 0.3%.

周五,欧元区2019第一季度的国际收支余额;2019年1月至3月英国的生产力情况;下午是美国就业数据,相对上个月7.5万的就业增量,市场对此期待看到有所改进,达到16.4万,并期望看到平均收入从0.2%小幅增长到0.3%


Duncan Donald

瑞麟集团资产管理总监、瑞麟资本投资管理部门负责人。拥有外汇市场22年的从业经验,曾担任伦敦交易学院首席执行官。于2018年加入瑞麟集团,为团队在外汇交易、即期外汇交易、远期外汇买卖、掉期交易以及期权相关的专业领域带来了宝贵知识和经验。

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