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股市走势和足球挂钩?通过关注足球在股市盈利(双语)


Is the UEFA Champions League only watched by football lovers? And can we make money on the stock market by following football-related events/news?

欧洲冠军联赛是否只有足球爱好者会观看?我们可以通过关注与足球有关的事件/新闻在股市上盈利吗?

 

We all know that football is a very lucrative industry, where business interests rarely leave room for long-lasting relationships between club, footballers and supporters. Football clubs are revenue and, in some cases, profit generating entities listed on public stock exchanges.

众所周知,足球是一个利润颇丰的行业,巨大的商业利益很少为俱乐部、足球运动员和粉丝之间的长期关系留下空间。足球俱乐部产生收入与利润,在某些情况下它们也会在证券交易所上市。

 

The most followed and coveted European competition is the UEFA Champions League (UCL). After this mid-week's quite exciting semi-finals we finally know the two lone survivors: Liverpool FC and Tottenham Hotspur.

在欧洲足球界,最受关注的比赛是欧洲冠军联赛(UCL)。在本周令人兴奋的半决赛之后,晋级决赛的两个幸存队伍分别是利物浦足球俱乐部和托特纳姆热刺队。

 

Supporters' disappointment and usual end-of-season market transfers rumours have not been the only source of concern for the clubs which failed to make it all the way to the final stages. As we can see in our “Chart of the week”, the UCL path to the final has largely influenced the stock price fluctuations of those clubs listed on respective stock exchanges.

对于没有挺进决赛部分的足球俱乐部来说,粉丝的失望情绪和赛季末的球员转移谣言并不是他们唯一关注的话题。正如附图中显示的,欧洲冠军联赛的决赛进程在很大程度上影响了在各大证券交易所上市的足球俱乐部的股价波动。

 

If we consider the stunning Ajax journey to the semi-final as an example, we see the stock being up by more than 60% since early Jan-19. On the other hand, Ajax stock fiercely dropped by more than 30% right after the semi-finals result. Similar stock reaction happened to Juventus’ stock price which rallied 18% after successfully qualifying for the quarter-finals, but also plummeted 43% (basically erasing all year-to-date gains) during the quarter-finals elimination week. AS Roma and Man Utd have also experienced ups and downs based on their performance on-pitch, although with less spiky fluctuations.

以出乎意料的阿贾克斯半决赛为例,自1月19日以来,阿贾克斯股价上涨超过60%。另一方面,在半决赛结果之后,阿贾克斯股价猛跌超过30%。类似的股价走势也发生在尤文图斯;他们的股价在成功晋级四分之一决赛后上涨了18%,但在四分之一决赛淘汰期间也下跌了43%(基本上抹去了从年初开始的所有涨幅)。罗马队和曼联队也因为他们在球场上的表现而经历了股价起伏,尽管波动较小。

 

Juventus's stock skyrocketed after Cristiano Ronaldo acquisition (+35% in the 2 days following the official announcement). Key players’ injuries and disqualification before crucial football matches throughout the season might also affect stocks price.

收购克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多后,尤文图斯的股价飙升(官方公布后2天内涨幅为35%)。在赛季的关键足球比赛之前,明星球员的伤病和资格取消也可能影响股票价格。

 

We all love and follow football, but what we see on TV might only be part of what is a much bigger picture, especially if we think of it from a financial point-of-view. The capital employed (equity and debt) is how clubs finance potential footballers acquisition (assets whose value is amortised over time), while profitability is driven by growing revenue (merchandising, Champions League qualification contribution paid by UEFA, TV rights sales), pricing impact on tickets & branded products and labour cost (management and footballers contracts mainly). We now know an extra-reason why we should follow football.  

我们都喜欢并关注足球,但如果从金融角度考虑,我们在电视上看到的可能只是冰山一角。资本(股权和债务)是俱乐部为潜在的足球运动员收购提供资金的方式(其价值随着时间的推移而摊销),而盈利能力则由收入的增长来驱动(商品营销,欧足联所支付的欧洲冠军联赛资格名额费用,电视转播权);俱乐部的定价会影响门票价格、品牌产品以及人工成本(主要是球队管理和合同成本)。现在,我们有更多的理由为足球狂热。

 

Hot Topics:

热点:

 

Ferrari (RACE.MI) outstanding Q1 earnings release lifted up the stock price by more than 5%. The Italian luxury car manufacturer beat on Revenue (by €71m, +13% yoy) and EPS (by €0.16, +22% yoy). The company also declared a €1.03 dividend per share and reiterated their FY2019 guidance (see table below).

法拉利(RACE.MI)发布的第一季度财报使股价上涨超过5%。这家意大利奢侈品汽车制造商收入(7100万欧元,同比增长13%)和每股收益(0.16欧元,同比增长22%)均超过市场平均水平。该公司还宣布发布每股1.03欧元的股息并重申其2017财年的导引(见下表)。

 

Ferrari's strong orders momentum continues thanks mainly to the solid and growing demand for the latest model (Portofino), which accounted for 30.8% of the sales increase of the 8-cylinder models.

法拉利的订单源源不断,主要得益于对最新车型(波托菲诺)需求的不断增长,该车型占8缸车型销量增长的30.8%。


Across the lines, Ferrari experienced a much larger than expected growth in vehicles shipped (+23% yoy), which pushed the Adj. EBIT margin 60bps higher compared to Q1 2018.

在整个生产线上,法拉利的出货量增幅大于预期(同比增长23%),这使得与2018年第一季度相比,其息税前利润率高出了60个基点。

 

What really impressed investors was the big jump in Chinese sales. In this respect, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong combined deliveries boosted by 79% yoy, while EMEA, NSA and Rest of APAC continued to post at least double-digit growth of 10%, 27% and 29%, respectively.

此外,给投资者留下深刻印象的是中国区销售额的大幅增长。在这方面,台湾,中国和香港的交付总量同比增长79%,而欧洲、中东、非洲三地区(EMEA),南美洲和北美洲(NSA)及亚太其他地区的交付量至少分别保持了两位数的增长,分别为10%,27%和29%。

 

Finally, the Industrial Free Cash Flow grew by €191mn yoy, thanks to €122mn increase in working capital (167mn higher than Q1 2018), while the company reduced its outstanding Net Industrial Debt by €192mn.

最后,法拉利的产业自由现金流同比增长1.91亿欧元,这主要归功于营运资本的增加(1.22亿欧元,比2018年第一季度同比增加了1.67亿);同时,该公司的净工业债务减少了1.92亿欧元。

 

 

Apple (AAPL) Q2 earnings release printed a beat on both revenue ($620mn) and EPS ($0.10). Shares moved up 4.5% post-announcement. While the iPhone maker guides for sequential flattish revenue and increasing expenses, the management seems to focus on share buybacks to return capital to shareholders. The limited increase by 5% in dividends paid ($15bn cash outflow vs Q2 net cash position of $113bn) compared to the much more aggressive $75bn shares repurchase programme already initiated (7.3% of number of diluted shares for the time being), indicates that management believes the company is currently undervalued.

苹果公司第二季度财报显示,其收入 (6.2亿美元)和每股收益(0.10美元)双双好于预期。消息公布后,该公司股价上涨4.5%。尽管这家iPhone制造商预计营收将连续持平,而支出不断增加,但管理层似乎把重点放在了股票回购上,以向股东返还资本。与已启动的750亿美元股票回购计划 (目前占稀释股票总数的7.3%)相比,分红的增长有限,仅5% (分红150亿美元,而第二季度现金净流入1130亿美元),这表明管理层认为该公司目前估值过低。

 

The yoy revenue decline of 5% has been largely due to a decrease in iPhone sales ($31bn vs $37bn in Q1 2018). On a positive note, Services and Wearables, Home & Accessories segments continue to post solid growth of 16% and 30%, respectively. Although Apple sales exposure to iPhone decreased from 61.4% to 53.5%, what will be crucial for the upcoming quarters is whether the management will be able to manage the smartphone sales decline without having an impact on margins.

此外,收入同比下降5%,这主要是因为iPhone销量下降(2018年第一季度为310亿美元,而2018年第一季度为370亿美元)。值得注意的是,服务业和可穿戴设备、家居及配件市场继续稳步增长,增幅分别为16%和30%。尽管苹果对iPhone的销售敞口从61.4%降至53.5%,但对未来几个季度至关重要的是,管理层能否在不影响利润率的情况下应对智能手机销售下滑。

 

Disney (DIS) reported its Q2 earnings with a strong beat on both EPS ($1.97) and revenue ($390mn). The stock went up 1.6% following the release.  Revenue went up 3% for the quarter ($14.9bn), while 1% for the half-year ($30bn). The main contributors for the interim revenue growth were Parks, Experiences and Products (+5%) and Direct-to-consumer & International (+15%).

 迪士尼 (DIS) 公布了第二季度财务状况,其中每股收益(1.97美元)和收入(3.9亿美元)都表现强劲。该公司股票在财报发布后上涨了1.6%本季度收入增长3% (149亿美元),去年上半年增长1% (300亿美元)。中期收入增长的主要动力是迪士尼公园(Parks)、体验和产品(+5%)以及直接面向消费者国际业务(+15%)

 

Segment operating income sharply fell 10% yoy for the quarter ($3.8bn), while it moderately declined by 9% for the half-year ($7.4bn). Studio Entertainment operating income dropped by 39% and 50% in Q1 and H1, respectively. Decline partially due to a decrease in theatrical and home entertainment distribution results.Net income rallied for both the quarter and the half-year by 85% and 12%, respectively.

该季度的分部营业收入同比大幅下降10%(38亿美元),而去年上半年则小幅下降9%(74亿美元)。工作室娱乐运营收入在一季度和上半年分别下降39%和50%。下降部分原因是影院和家庭娱乐发行业绩下降。净利润在本季度和去年上半年分别增长了85%和12%。

 

One of the DIS’ future main competitors within the streaming services space is Roku (ROKU). The US tech company’s stock rallied 8% following a strong beat on EPS ($0.17) and revenue ($16.9mn).

迪士尼未来在流媒体服务领域的主要竞争对手之一是罗库公司 (Roku)。在每股收益(0.17美元)和营收(1690万美元) 强劲增长之后,这家美国科技公司的股价上涨了8%。

Roku increased its 2019 full-year guidance to:

Roku将2019年全年目标上调至:

 

1. Total Net Revenue: $1030mn to $1050mn

   总收入:1.03亿至1.05亿美元


2. Total Gross Profit: $465mn to $475mn

   毛利润:4.65亿美元至4.75亿美元


3. Net Income: -$75mn to -$65mn

   净收入:7500万美元至6500万美元


4. Adj. EBITDA: $10mn to $20mn

   调整后未计利息、税项、折旧及摊销前的利润:1000万至2000万美元

 

Revenue grew by 51% yoy, pushed up by a 79% yoy growth in Platform revenue (+40% active users and +74% streaming hours).  Gross Margin expanded by 260bps (48.8%). All-in-all, Roku’s Q1 results exceeded previous guidance for revenue, gross profit and adjusted EBITDA, driven by strong operational execution, robust active account growth and the strengthening shift to streaming, which the management expect to continue.

该公司收入同比增长51%,主要是由于平台收入同比增长79%(+40%的活跃用户和+74%的流媒体时间)。毛利率增长了2.6% (48.8%)。总而言之,Roku第一季度的收益、毛利润和调整后的EBITDA均超过了此前的预期,这主要得益于强劲的运营,活跃账户增长以及向流媒体的不断强化。管理层预计流媒体业务将继续发展。

 

Lyft (LYFT) first public earnings release was mix as the company missed on EPS ($7.95) and beat on revenue ($36mn). Share edged up 1%.  Q1 revenue went up 95% yoy ($776mn), as the number of active riders increased from 14mn to 20.5mn (46%) in the quarter, meaning the revenue per active rider also ticked up by 34%. The Adj. EBITDA improved from last year's level of -$239mn to -$216mn in Q1 2019.

来福车 (Lyft)首次公开收益,结果喜忧参半,该公司未能实现每股盈利(7.95美元),但是营业收入(3600万美元)超过预期。股价微涨1%第一季度的收入同比增长95%(7.76亿美元),因为活跃乘客的数量从1400万增加到了2050(46%),这意味着每个活跃乘客的收入也增长了34%。调整后的EBITDA从去年全年2.39亿美元2019年第一季度的2.16亿美元。

 

The company guides for FY 2019 total revenue of $3.275bn to $3.3bn and Adj. EBITDA of $1.15 to $1.175bn.

该公司预计2019财年总收入为32.75亿美元至33亿美元,调整后的EBITDA为11.5至11.75亿美元。

 

Next week our macro spotlight will be on?

未来一周我们宏观环境的关注点是?

 

Tuesday:

周二


Industrial production March 2019 – Eurozone
      2019年3月欧元区工业生产数据


Interest rates (3 months) April 2019 – Eurozone
2019年4月欧元区3个月利率       

2019年4月欧元区长期国债收益率


Regional labour market statistics in the UK: May 2019
       20195月英国地区劳动力市场统计

 

Wednesday:

周三


Flash estimate GDP and employment - euro area and EU Q1/2019

欧元区和欧盟2019年第一季度预估GDP和就业数据

 

Thursday:

周四


International trade in goods March 2019

20193月国际商品交易数据

 

Friday:

周五


Inflation (HICP) April 2019 – Eurozone

20194月欧元区通货膨胀数据


Production in construction March 2019 – Eurozone

2019年三月欧元区建筑生产数据



Chart of the Week

每周一图



 

Fact of the Week

本周要闻

 

Over the past six months alone, Apple has bought approximately 20 to 25 companies (one every two to three weeks on average). The US tech giant often doesn't announce these deals because the companies are small, and Apple is "primarily looking for talent and intellectual property”. --Tim Cook, CEO of Apple

仅在过去6个月,苹果就收购了大约20至25家公司(平均每两至三周就收购一家)。这家美国科技巨头通常不会宣布这些交易,因为这些公司规模较小,而苹果“主要是在寻找人才和知识产权”。——蒂姆 库克,苹果公司首席执行官

 

Quote of the Week

本周引言

 

“After delivering the biggest opening of all time, the movie has generated almost $2.3 billion in worldwide box office to date, making it the second-highest grossing film of all time, after just 2 weeks in theatres.”--Robert Iger, Disney CEO, on latest Avengers saga movie release phenomenal success

“在创造了有史以来最大的首映票房之后,这部电影在全球范围内创造了近23亿美元的票房,使其仅在上映两周内就成为有史以来票房第二高的电影。”——迪士尼首席执行官罗伯特·伊格尔在最新上映的《复仇者联盟》系列电影中获得了巨大成功。


Stefano Sciacca

Sciacca拥有专业的资产投资经验,曾就职于大型金融机构如伦敦证券交易所和高盛。现任职瑞麟资本的投资经理一职。Stefano在股票公开市场有非常深入的研究和丰富的知识。

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